Gary Ablett is poised for a brutal attack on the Gold Coast SUNS record books as they chase an historic AFL finals berth in the second half of the 2014 season.
A Mid-Season Statistical Report Card shows Ablett is on track to better club records for most possessions, contested possessions, clearances, tackles and goal assists in a season.
In a phenomenal first half to the 2014 campaign, Ablett has had 351 disposals, and is within striking distance of his own club record of 675 possessions set in 2012.
He also has 199 contested possessions as he eyes of his own 2013 record of 313, plus 87 clearances chasing his own 2011 mark of 133.
Just as impressive as his freakish ball-winning abilities is his tackle rate. He has made 64 tackles to the halfway mark of the season and needs only to maintain that sort of level and stay injury free to better the 2011 record he set at 119.
Similarly, in an often under-rated and under-stated part of his game, he has 13 goal assists in pursuit of his own club record of 19, set in 2012.
Ablett is also on track to top his own club record of 28 goals in a season set last year, but he won’t have that to himself. At the half way of the 2014 season Tom Lynch (23) heads the SUNS goal-kicking with 23 from Ablett (21) and Brandon Matera (20).
Not surprisingly, Ablett has been a statistical standout in an 11-match block in which the SUNS collectively had shown massive improvement in most key areas.
In wins alone they are two ahead of the equivalent stage last year, and assuming that 12 wins will guarantee them a finals berth, they need to beat five of their last 11 opponents, starting with West Coast in Perth on Saturday.
Then, it’s Geelong (home), Hawthorn (Launceston), Collingwood (home), Western Bulldogs (Cairns), Brisbane (Gabba), St.Kilda (home), Carlton (Etihad Stadium), Port Adelaide (home), Essendon (Etihad Stadium) and West Coast (home).
Mathematically, signs are positive as the SUNS continue to improve in their fourth AFL campaign.
At the halfway mark of 2014 they are averaging 93.1 points per game after corresponding figures of 69.7 points in 2011, 68.6 points in 2012 and 87.2 points in 2013. Defensively, they are conceding on average 90.3 points after previously going at 123.9 (2011), 112.8 (2012) and 95.0 (2013).
This amounts to an overall net result of “plus 2.8 points” to better the equivalent “minus 54.2” outcome in 2011, “minus 44.2” in 2012 and “minus 7.9” in 2013. Consequently, their overall percentage is up from 51.4 in 2011, 56.6 in 2012 and 92.5 in 2013 to 100.9 this year.
They’ve won 21 of 44 quarters this season and at the same rate would better their 2013 mark of 39 quarters won and one quarter shared. In 2011 they won just 22 quarters and in 2012 they won 28.
Individually, Lynch is also on track to easily better club records in two key statistical categories of contested marks and marks inside forward 50.
He has 23 contested marks at the halfway mark of the season chasing his own club record of 28 set in 2011, and has 27 marks inside 50. The record for marks inside 50 stands at 30 to Campbell Brown in 2012.
Zac Smith, only four games back from a 12-month knee reconstruction layoff, has set such a high standard in his return that he could better his own club record for most ruck hit-outs in a season despite missing the first seven games.
Smith has 120 hit-outs in four games at 30.0 per game. Anything like that sort of rate through the rest of the season would see him better his own record of 327 hit-outs set in 2011.
At the halfway mark of 2014 Dion Prestia (13) and Jarrod Harbrow (12) lead the SUNS in running bounces, but Harbrow’s record of 48 set in 2011 looks safe.
Likewise, Nathan Bock’s 2011 record of 139 marks. Matt Shaw (54), Trent McKenzie (54) and Lynch (52) are leading an unlikely pursuit of that figure.
Interestingly, a staggering 13 SUNS players have played every game to the halfway mark of the season – Ablett, Greg Broughton, Sam Day, Harbrow, Lynch, Steven May, McKenzie, Jaeger O’Meara, Prestia, Michael Rischitelli, Shaw, Danny Stanley and David Swallow.
They are on track to join a group of eight who have played every game in a season for the club that includes Brennan , Harbrow, Stanley (2011), Harley Bennell, Josh Caddy and Matthew Warnock (2012) and Aaron Hall and O’Meara (2013).
This is reflective in statistics for selection changes and a pointer to a much more settled unit. After making on average 3.95 changes per game in 2011, this figure has dropped to 3.29 in 2012 and 2.90 in 2011, and this year to 2.43.
The SUNS’ top 10 all-time games list remains unchanged except for the slide of the now retired Brennan. Having finished last year 4th on the list with 54 games in red and yellow he is now down to 10th behind Ablett (72), McKenzie (68), Harbrow (67), Stanley (64), Shaw (63), Swallow and Prestia (62), Rischitelli (57) and Bennell (55). Day (53) and Luke Russell (52) are also poised to go past him along with Lynch and Matera, who will post their 50th game on Saturday.
Similarly, the SUNS have used only 30 different players in the first 11 games of 2014. The corresponding numbers in previous years was 37 (2011), 38 (2012) and 34 (2013).
In key team statistics, after heading their opposition for overall possessions three times in 2011, four times in 2012 and five times in 2013 the SUNS have done so six times in the first 11 games of 2014.
Their cumulative for-and-against possession count has improved from “minus 1314” in 2011, “minus 1127” in 2012 and “minus 508” in 2013 to “minus 166” this year.
Having headed their opposition in tackles in seven of the first 11 games this year they are on track to better the all-time best mark of 13 tackle “wins” last year. Their annual net tackle figure has improved from “minus 70” in 2011, “minus 191” in 2012 and “plus 25” in 2013 to sit at “plus 57” this year.
They’ve had more inside 50 entries than their opponents six times in 11 games this year after doing so five times in 2011, twice in 2012 and eight times last year. Their net inside 50 number is positive for the first time at “plus 9” after previous marks of “minus 274” in 2011, “minus 348” in 2012 and “minus 97” in 2013.
Clearances are pretty much on a par with 2011 and 2013 figures and right up on the clearance nightmare of 2012. They are “plus 5” overall this year after out-pointing their opposition for clearances six times in 11 games.
Marks inside 50 are in the positive for the first time. Having won this category five times in the first 11 games and split it once they are at “plus 6” overall after finishing “minus 210” in 2011, “minus 107” in 2012 and “minus 43” in 2013.
The SUNS’ overall contested possession numbers are also set to break into the positive for the first time this year. Through 11 games they are at “minus 2” after corresponding figures of “minus 164”, “minus 336” and “minus 23” in the past three years. They’ve had more contested possessions than their opponent four times this year and doing so nine times last year.
In the key individual statistics, Ablett remains a clear leader overall in SUNS possessions. He has 2286 at an extraordinary average of 31.8 per game. Prestia (1381) has climbed from 5th to 2nd this year, ahead of Harbrow (1361), who remains locked in 3rd spot.
O’Meara, halfway through his second season without missing a senior game, has sky-rocketed from 19th to 11th on the all-time list. He has 719 possessions overall at 21.8 possessions per game. Only Ablett, Swallow (23.3), Stanley (23.2) and Prestia (22.3) have a higher average, and barring mishap O’Meara will displace the Brennan from the top 10 before the end of the season.
Ablett also continues to be a clear leader on the SUNS all-time goal-kicking list with 93 goals from Bennell (66). Lynch (58) and Matera (53) have jumped the retired Brown (45) into 3rd and 4th positions overall.
O’Meara leads with 2014 tackle count with 73 from Ablett (64) and Harbrow (47). The 2013 NAB AFL Rising Star winner has climbed from 11th to 9th on the all-time tackles list, headed by Ablett (389), Rischitelli (250) and Prestia (249).
Lynch heads the SUNS in contested marks this year with 23 from Sam Day (12), Stanley (8) and Charlie Dixon (8). Overall, Lynch (89) leads the way from Stanley (51), Day (47) and Dixon (46).
Lynch also heads the 2014 marks inside 50 list with 27 from Day (14) and Harley Bennell (14), Dixon (11) and Matera (10). Overall, it’s Lynch (80) from Brown (51), Bennell (46) and Matera (44).
Ablett leads the 2014 clearance tally with 87 from Prestia (64), Swallow (55) and O’Meara (53) and the overall list with 476 from Prestia (240) and Swallow (210).
The same four players lead the contested possessions list for 2014, with Ablett (199) showing the way from Prestia (133), Swallow (127) and O’Meara (125). Overall, it’s Ablett (1105) from Swallow (595), Prestia (537) and Stanley (510), with O’Meara (334) having jumped from 16th to 10th.
In bounces, Harbrow (112) continues to lead overall from Ablett (88) and Bennell (80), while in 2014 figures first-year star Kade Kolodjashnij (10) and Ablett (10) are keeping the pressure on Harbrow and Prestia.
Ablett leads the 2014 goal assists with 13 from Prestia (10) and Swallow (9), and overall in this category with 64 from Swallow, Matera and Bennell (38).