Gold Coast SUNS coach Guy McKenna needs only to consult the history books to combat any suggestion of complacency among his players after a wonderful 5-2 start to the season has some in the media saying they are all but over the line in the finals race.
The experts have been saying that invariably the top eight after Round 7 is the top eight for September, and with the GC SUNS sitting a record fifth on the ladder, they are in the box seat.
In fact, in 20 years since the final eight system was introduced in 1994, only once have the top eight sides on the ladder after round 7 gone on to play finals. That was in 2008.
It would have been twice had Essendon not been excluded from the finals last year over the supplements scandal. They won enough games to play in September but made way for Carlton, who were 11th at round 7. But in the other 18 years since 1994 there have been more than two changes on average to the top eight from Round 7 to the end of the home-and-away season.
In 1996-97-99, no less than half of the top eight changed from what is virtually a third of the way through the season.
There are countless examples of huge ladder changes, headed by St.Kilda’s resurrection in 1997. They were 11th at this point of the season, yet finished top of the H&A ladder and played in the grand final.
More recent history is more supportive of suggestions that the round 7 ladder is a good pointer to the finals teams. From 2003-12 changes to the top 8 from round 7 have been fewer – 1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-3.
But even in 2012, when St.Kilda, Carlton and Essendon missed the finals after sitting 8th, 4th and 2nd at round 7. Hawthorn was 9th at that point, yet finished top of the H&A ladder and played in the grand final.
The message from coach McKenna will more than likely be simple, and no different to what he’s been saying all along. While it’s exciting and rewarding to be sitting so prominently on the ladder at round 7, there’s still a lot of work to be done before SUNS fans should look to book finals tickets for September.
